Why this topic and why now?

I have many friends who are realtors and many more who are homeowners. Their agendas toward property ownership are largely settled. But it's those acquaintances who are now debating the difficult choices of moving into the ownership column that really need some biased direction on the matter. Many new facts have surfaced, but are seldom discussed in the decision process due to an emotional attachment to the American dream.

I know that this lobby has been propelled by the highest of promoters in Washington, but where is the explanation of their guilt in the current morass?

Where Hoboken is concerned, there is a great deal of interest due to it's location - one of three historical rules or principles in addressing real estate. The other two of course, are location and location. While this city has avoided the extent of damage that other parts of the nation have undergone, it is my opinion that it cannot be avoided. And that if it is slower in impact, it will simply take longer.

The effect on one's equity remains the same - eroded or wiped out - and the consequences could be worse, depending on other localized influences. Do city debt, property taxes and required infrastructure come to mind?

While history can always serve guidance, adjustments in the market's structure can overwhelm any relative rule such as location. Location will simply aid in accomplishing a "not as severe" scenario - something I find useless in determining where capital should be invested in the first place. Ironically, it is a dislocation or mispricing that has to be recognized as the adjustment currently underway. Until that is realized, it will simply take longer for equilibrium to set in.

Timing is everything. And it is my opinion that the timing of the majority of Hoboken property development has coincided with the cusp of this mispricing - the era of free credit.

That is over. It's gone. And it ain't coming back for a long time.

This is when I find myself in the middle of a realtor's or homeowner's persuasion upon a prospective buyer. What is lost in the discussion is the free credit era "cost" that is being passed off as "value" to the last people standing in this game of musical chairs.

The lack of real estate market transparency is a natural tool for such aiding and abetting. The majority of data is "administered" by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and it is fraught with transposition and misrepresentation. That line of marketing is carried down to every card carrying Realtor, your local expert. Those topics are discussed elsewhere but will be brought into related issues here.

I hope to pull local industry quotes and opinions here and refute the fiction that is sold as fact. With such a small physical area, Hoboken has an overwhelming influence by a few developers of local and national stature. While I will try to detach my local political opinion from these discussions, they have been an unfortunate driver overlapping this era of mispricing. Despite past prosecutions, the historical methodology for politics in this city seems to be alive and well.

As all these factors unwind - and I obviously believe they will - we will be pulled into the undertow that has simply worked more efficiently in other parts of this nation. My conclusions are based on "price" and admittedly pricing foundations vary throughout the square mile. This is where I rely on the forces of markets to act, regardless of near or long term.

Like most investments, it's value for the dollar. In RE terms, that's generally cost per square foot.