1025 MP - A Historical Spreadsheet

Let's start with some basics that will establish the foundation for putting forthcoming data into "objective" context.

Although the data below is sourced from publicly available databases and subscriptions, it's believed to be reliable but it's accuracy cannot be assured by the author.

1025 Maxwell Place:
Original buyers commenced closings on pre-construction commitments in November 2006 for the lower floors and continued through September 2007 for the top floors.

The building houses 169 residential units on 11 floors above a street level mandated for leased retail space(s), 12 floors total.

Toll Brothers "reserved" certain units from the original offering and their current status remains unknown. No units are considered "sold" until a formal/legal closing.

At least 25 (15%) of the units are known to be offered for sale or rent by existing owners. A few are offered for either type of occupancy.

Any unit's value per square foot is dependent upon two primary factors - directional placement within the floor and floor level. Since the varying layouts are aligned vertically, the following data has been compiled by layout rather than size and floor. For example, unit 305 is similar in layout and directional placement to unit 405 - only the floor level differs. These examples will be referred to as the "05" layout.

There are 16 possible layouts numbered "00" through "17" with the omission of numbers 13 and 16. All floors may not be exactly the same in layout composition but square footage and average cost of the layout will still be factored in for normalization purposes, in conjunction with the floor level. Original buyers' upgrades may have varied.

00:
966 sq ft (floors 2 through 12)

01:
2,185 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 2,006 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

02:
1,588 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,430 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

03:
1,231 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,703 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

04:
1,950 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,495 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

05:
1,198 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,518 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

06:
1,865 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,298 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

07:
1,133 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,062 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

08:
1,281 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,314 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

09:
1,177 sq ft (floor 2) and 1,139 sq ft (floors 3 through 5) and 894 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

10:
1,281 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,317 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

11:
1,062 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,342 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

12:
1,920 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 1,340 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

14:
1,361 sq ft (floors 2 through 12)

15:
1,331 sq ft (floors 2 through 5) and 701 sq ft (floors 6 through 12)

17:
701 sq ft (floors 2 through 5)

Left: A floor plan indicating directional placement of the above-mentioned layouts.

On a side note, the average 30-year fixed mortgage has just reached 6.50%, the highest level for such home financing since April 2002 according to Bankrate.com. Recall that one of my premises for trouble in Hoboken is independent of location. It is the removal of the free credit era, and more seriously, the adjustments necessary in raising credit quality.

The 1025 "spreadsheet" is raising some very interesting questions which support my earlier skepticism about Toll and reseller expectations. Hint: They weren't even close to begin with and the gap is growing wider as other cost factors worsen the valuation outcome of the analysis.

Stay tuned... RE.porter - A Little Dose of Reality