Look closely at the enclosed data series. Does it show you aberrations from seasonal adjustments or a reason for optimism?
The latest Existing Home Sales numbers for January surprised to the downside at 5.05 million, a 7.2% drop from December's 5.44 million, which in turn was 16% lower than November's 6.49 million. January's consensus was for 5.5 million.
Regionally, the biggest drop was in the northeast (-10.9% sequentially). Total houses sold (-11.1% sequentially). Supply increased from 7 to 8 months and the decline in both median and average price came in at -3.4% and -3.1%, respectively.
Keep in mind that all this is taking place in an environment of unprecedented stimulation through Treasury and Federal Reserve policies. Property taxes have only one way to go over the next decade.
2 comments:
Despite a trillion dollars of effort directed at supporting real estate and real estate related assets, prices are resuming their downward slide. This after falling 28% nationwide peak to trough and over 50% in some areas.
Prices would have fallen more in the interim but that was going to happen anyway, regardless of the amount of money you spend and what you spend it on. That's why they call it a bubble "burst"! I want to keep emphasizing that this will be a prolonged and steady process.
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