Despite record-low mortgage rates, the number of qualified or willing borrowers continues to drop. The Mortgage Bankers Association refinance index dropped 15.1% while the purchase index dropped a seasonally adjusted 3.3%.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.02% last week, up from 5% the previous week, while 15-year fixed-rate mortgage carried a 4.34% average rate, up from 4.33%.
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Not on this topic, but relevant to the optimists' argument:
There is a great misunderstanding by many in the public domain on HOW to weigh current real estate data with that in recent history. That ignorance simply results in poor conclusions with poor weighting.
Let me explain with recent CS results for example.
The monthly data in the Case-Shiller index is actually a three-month average. This allows for a larger sample and reduces the amount of erratic movement in the index. However, it also can mask turning points. The November data (for example) is an average of prices for the months from October through December, two months when the tax credit was still a major motivator for buyers and one month after the original expiration date.
To simply consider the changes we have recently witnessed as signs of a POSSIBLE recovery are totally misleading. That conclusion then leads to other SPECULATION that the data says otherwise.
I voice this here because the ignorance is being initiated by real estate professionals who claim transparency and best interests of the public!
That's like a doctor who commits malpractice claiming that he is helping save lives and that is what is paramount. Simply laughable!
I think we all know what I'm referring to. Thank you for allowing this discussion on a somewhat unrelated forum because I got tired of singing to an obviously conflicted choir.
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