Unemployment Rates By County

The residential real estate market depends on consumer psychology, more than ever. For that reason, the NAR (your realtors' talking head) is trying to offset the RE.ality of the consumer's realization - likely too little too late. So while the economic rebound (spelled repair) continues to reverse as much damage, as soon as possible, there is NO evidence of employment growth - NONE! In fact, the outlook for productivity growth through cost cuts implies continued job cuts through next year. This is especially representative of the financial services industry, the hub of NYC and the metro area (Hoboken) employment machine.

But the misunderstood aspect of this "recession" is that of deleveraging in assets of varying liquidity - from paintings to real estate. The employment outlook is a slow moving picture, starkly represented by this collage over the past two years:

http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

So while buyers may misunderstand this current bounce as a bottom for the next few years, they would be troubled by any evidence that supports their theory for emotional commitment to a "home." This is the stupidity of the psyche for home ownership without any regard for the commitment as a key "investment" - first and foremost.

By way of a timeline, the Hoboken response to sales and prices is about HALFWAY through the reflected drop in prices. While activity is a precursor to price support, the current activity shows only bottom end first-time buyers. A picture that's falls short of the foundation necessary for any stabilization, let alone price reflation.

Seller denial is a leading indicator... so we have far to run...