A ‘Vulture’ Preys on Short Hills
THERE is a Circling Vulture casting its shadow over Short Hills real estate — virtually speaking, at least.
Last spring, a blogger by that name set up a nest at the real estate Web site Zillow.com, and started posting reports about declines in asking prices and unraveled deals. Short Hills is a community where such things were once unheard of (and still are not much spoken about, at least by real estate agents promoting properties for sale).
In a few recent posts, Circling Vulture served up fresh data about the following Short Hills properties that are currently on the market.
242 HARTSHORN DRIVE After 125 days, the asking price for this 20,000-square-foot brick Georgian mansion set on 3.5 acres fell $2.75 million, or 29 percent — to $6.75 million from $9.5 million.
65 KEAN ROAD On the market 360 days as of Jan. 29 — with eight price drops for a total of $609,000, or 25 percent — the house went into contract on Jan. 24 while listed at $1.89 million, but the deal fell apart during the mandatory attorney review period.
10 EAST BEECHCROFT ROAD Listed and then relisted, with price drops totaling $250,000 over 234 days, the house has been under contract three times. Its current asking price is $1.75 million.
The Vulture has his facts straight, according to those who know — that is, the licensed brokers with access to multiple-listing-service data.
But several agents from Short Hills insisted in telephone interviews that the mysterious C.V. presents a warts-only picture of the local market, which is actually “slow, but not dead,” as Marc Paolella, a Century 21 broker and appraiser, put it.
Furthermore, declared Karen Eastman Bigos of the Towne Realty Group, “this C.V. person is just plain mean” toward real estate professionals.
The blogger — who did not reveal his or her identity, or comment for this article — indisputably employs a mocking tone. Written under a picture of a buzzard on the Web site is the motto “Capitalizing on the greed and stupidity of others.” In the Q. and A. section of the site, C.V. tartly advises home shoppers, “Remember: always offer full asking price so as not to ‘insult’ the seller.”
Such snarkiness is emblematic of a rising “anti-Realtor movement,” said another blogger about New Jersey real estate, James Bednar. Known online as Grim, Mr. Bednar blogged about the real estate “bubble” before it burst, and currently provides gimlet-eyed market commentary at njrereport.com.
“This provides counterpoint to the entire spin of the real estate industry,” he said after a look at the Vulture’s work.
Mr. Bednar said he began blogging after becoming disillusioned during a house hunt in Montclair in 2005 and 2006, when bidding wars would break out on houses with already inflated asking prices.
Mr. Bednar, a technical support specialist by trade, said hacking into the state’s multiple-listing systems was a fairly simple matter for him.
Several Short Hills brokers theorized that C.V. is motivated by spite, perhaps stemming from a bad experience trying to buy into one of New Jersey’s most exclusive communities.
Short Hills, part of Millburn Township, is a well-established haven for the well-heeled. For decades it has been popular with Wall Street professionals, because of its easy train commute to Manhattan, not to mention the fact that it offers top-rated schools and a glittering temple of fashion, the Mall at Short Hills.
Of course, Wall Street is not supplying as many well-heeled buyers these days. It is still too early to judge the extent of the impact on the Short Hills real estate market, analysts say.
So far, median home prices have fallen about 15 percent since the boom times of three or four years ago, according to Mr. Paolella. But Ms. Bigos, who has been selling real estate in Short Hills for 24 years (following in her mother’s footsteps), conceded that the last quarter of 2008 was “by far the worst” that she had ever seen.
Also, the real estate analyst Jeffrey G. Otteau has consistently pointed out in reports to subscribing brokers that the market is being hit hardest smack in the Short Hills wheelhouse: homes priced above $1.5 million.
The Otteau Valuation Group’s January report said there was a 46-month supply of homes priced from $1 million to $2.5 million on the market in New Jersey. (For homes priced at $2.5 million and above, the figure is 59.1 months, or three weeks shy of five years.)
According to the Circling Vulture report in January, one house in Short Hills — 12 Bruce Circle — sold after 359 days on the market for $1.2 million, roughly half of its original asking price of $2.23 million.
“But that house was overpriced from the beginning,” Ms. Bigos said. “It had a doctor’s office in it, which the owner initially thought would be wonderful to offer to a buyer as a home office — but really didn’t fit with what is happening with the market right now.”
As with the mansion at 242 Hartshorn Drive, being marketed by Vera Chapman of Burgdorff ERA, the broker claimed to be privy to facts that C.V. cannot know, but which add perspective.
“We didn’t cut the price because the market is bad,” Ms. Chapman said. “My client is getting married, and she really wants to sell.”
Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
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